China’s decision to remove export tax rebates for HS 391000 products effective April 1, 2026 is expected to have broader implications beyond its domestic market, potentially reshaping global silicone supply dynamics.

1. Rebalancing of Global Pricing Structures
Without export tax rebates, Chinese export prices are likely to more accurately reflect production and compliance costs. In the short term, this may exert upward pressure on international prices for certain base silicone materials.

2. Increased Supply Chain Diversification
As price advantages narrow, international buyers may diversify sourcing strategies across regions. This could encourage the development of alternative supply bases and reduce overreliance on a single origin.

3. Shift Toward Value-Based Competition
With policy-driven price support removed, product quality, consistency, performance specifications, and technical service will play a more decisive role in purchasing decisions. Competition is expected to shift from price-led to value-led models.

4. Long-Term Market Stabilization
Over time, a more transparent pricing environment may contribute to healthier global trade relations and support sustainable development across the silicone industry.